17 January 2023, 12h00 to 13h30 GMT

Led by African Energy founder Jon Marks with key contributions from Africa Confidential editor Patrick Smith and African Energy staff, this political risk strategy roundtable was part of African Energy’s monthly AIX membership programme of online meetings.

Short-/medium-term impacts

• Elections – Nigeria in February will be eagerly anticipated among at least seven African polls in 2023.
• Conflict watch – Ethiopia, the Sahel, Libya and others: are there sufficient mechanisms to keep these contained?
• People to watch in 2023 – who’s making the running in politics and energy industries?
• How to operate in volatile conditions.

Here today, tomorrow’s nightmare scenarios

• Climate impacts – a geostrategic and domestic politics view (including social tensions, limits of international support) after COP27, on countries confronted by the most severe heat stress.
• Water shortfalls adding to strains on the ‘energy-agriculture nexus’.
• Population growth – the UN forecasts a global population now nearing 8bn will reach 9.7bn by 2050, with 43% of the increase from only five countries, including Nigeria, DR Congo and Ethiopia. How will demographic shifts impact politically and on planners’ perceptions?

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